Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar Petani dan Kredit Perbankan Terhadap Peningkatan Ekspor Komoditas Pertanian Provinsi Jawa Barat

Abstract

Increasing exports of agricultural commodities is not only expected to encourage regional economic growth but also have a broad impact on the welfare of rural communities. Within the last year, the agricultural commodity exports of West Java province have been fluctuating, and in the fourth quarter of 2022, it showed negative growth. Theoretically, the production volume of the agricultural sector could be related to inflation, farmers' terms of trade, and bank credit for the agriculture sectors. This study aims to analyze the functional relationship between the export volume of agricultural commodities and these three variables. Using monthly time series data over the period of January 2018-December 2022, the analysis model used is autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). This study reveals a cointegration relationship between export volume and inflation, farmers' terms of trade, and bank credit. In the long and short run, the farmers' terms of trade positively affect agriculture exports. But, inflation has a negative effect in the long run but a positive in the short run. This finding has implications that the increase in the exports of agriculture commodities for Wes Java can be carried out through policy interventions related to increasing farmer exchange rates and controlling inflation.